Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Negative

Iran War Headlines

We should open the week with a big move tomorrow following Iran news this weekend that contradicts Friday’s peace-related rally in the markets. Friday’s news that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open for shipping traffic and other rumors that raised optimism of a resolution to the conflict would come soon caused a huge rally in stocks, significant drop in oil prices and a noticeable improvement in bonds and mortgage rates. However, that changed this weekend when Iran apparently attacked two ships trying to navigate the strait and made statements that the two sides were far apart for reaching an agreement. Those statements differ from what President Trump has recently made. As a result, stock futures are showing sizable losses this evening and oil prices have jumped higher. This should renew inflation concerns, leading to bond selling and an increase in rates tomorrow morning.

High

Unknown

Retail Sales

Starting this week's economic calendar will be March's Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday. It tracks consumer spending, which makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Therefore, this report can be highly influential on the financial and mortgage markets. Forecasts have sales rising 1.4% from February with a 1.2% increase if more volatile and costly auto transactions are excluded. From a theoretical perspective, good news for rates would be a much smaller increase in sales. Realistically though, the markets haven't paid too much attention to the typical relevant economic data lately. Their focus has been on the Middle East and inflation led by high oil prices.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Wednesday doesn’t have any data that we need to be concerned about, but does have a long-term Treasury auction happening that day. Results of the 20-year Bond auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. These types of sales don't directly affect mortgage rates, although they can impact broader bond trading sentiment that has the potential to indirectly move rates. A strong demand from investors could lead to bond gains and a minor improvement in mortgage pricing Wednesday afternoon, if it is a calm day before they are posted.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

The week's only other monthly report will be the University of Michigan's revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for April at 10:00 AM ET Friday, which gives us an indication of consumer sentiment and their willingness to spend. Forecasts have the index rising from the preliminary 47.6 reading of two weeks ago that was much lower than anticipated at that time. This means that surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than they were earlier this month. Data like this is relevant because strengthening confidence usually means consumers are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future, fueling economic growth. Therefore, the lower the reading, the better the news for rates.

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Unknown

none

Overall, Tuesday is the most important day of the week based on economic data, but tomorrow is likely to be quite active for rates also following this weekend’s Strait of Hormuz news. A good candidate for calmest day may be Thursday unless Middle East news changes that. Despite a small number of scheduled events, we still should see plenty of movement in rates this week. Accordingly, please keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Iran War Headlines

Retail Sales

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

none

Float / Lock Recommendation